Response 12: Predictions for 2012 Election Success
The 2012 elections are still more than 2 years off–who knows exactly what technology will look like then, what new tools will be taking everyone by storm? In 2006, Twitter was a side project. By the 2008 elections, “Senator Obama — or one of his staff members — typed more than 250 updates to his Twitter account…” I don’t pretend to know enough about the very cutting edge of social media to predict what specific tool will provide a candidate the edge in 2012 (I hope it’s not one of these totally creepy augmented reality tools, though, because the idea of a candidate’s fieldworker pulling out their iphone, identifying my face, and pulling up my social networking profiles to find out more about me freaks me the hell out.) That said, I think there are a couple of obvious lessons from the reading that candidates will do well to have learned before campaign season:
1. Start early, and fix bugs as you go.
A direct quote from the Infonomics article: “Campaign insiders believe this seemingly-endless season was one of the best things that happened to the [Obama] campaign; it allowed them to build grassroots networks across the country, sign up volunteers, and test out field operations in every state long before the November general election, thus allowing them to refine tools, data collection, and reporting.” The Edelman document mentions “starting early” as a lesson to be learned from the campaign. Various online sources hold this lesson dear–the Betfair Blog started talking 2012 in November, 2008. And there’s already a mobile app counting down to the big day. The earlier a candidate starts, the longer they have to develop tools, create networks of support, and fix problems.
2. Enable user-generated content.
The Edelman Trust Barometer makes it clear–people trust other people like themselves (and these days, apparently, academic experts. Don’t think that’s relevant to campaigns, though.) So a candidate has to make it possible for his or her supporters to communicate with one another online, in both conventional ways (forums, groups, emails) and Web 2.0 ways (posting youtube videos, creating promotional materials for the candidate and having a means for widespread distribution.) Obama did this well, and the successful 2012 candidate can build on his campaign’s model.
3. Focus on mobile.
I’m convinced this is a big deal for pretty much everything online, campaigns included. The figure from the Edelman document really drives it home: 90% of Americans are within 3 feet of their cell phones 24 hours a day. Mobile content lends itself to the “real-world” interactivity that a candidate needs to convert online enthusiasm into. Since cell phones can do more and more (there’s not much a top-end smartphone CAN’T do), it makes sense to develop mobile apps, use SMS, and invest time in sites that cater to mobile users (Twitter comes to mind.)
